Yuki Tsunoda, now in his fourth season in Formula 1, is making his case louder than ever for a Red Bull Racing seat in 2025, but the odds seem stacked against him. The 24-year-old, who has consistently expressed his ambition for a promotion, has turned up the volume on his frustrations heading into the Qatar Grand Prix. With Sergio Perez under fire for underperformance, Tsunoda sees himself as the natural choice to partner Max Verstappen—but Red Bull’s leadership remains unconvinced.
The Push for Recognition
Tsunoda believes his performance at RB (AlphaTauri) speaks for itself. He has consistently outperformed teammates, including Nyck de Vries, Daniel Ricciardo, and now Liam Lawson, over the course of the 2024 season. His logic is simple: Red Bull has historically promoted drivers from its junior team based on consistent superiority.
“Historically, it has been pretty natural,” Tsunoda said. “One of the drivers who outperforms the other consistently gets promoted. But for me, that hasn’t been the case, and I don’t know why.”
Red Bull’s Reservations
Despite his performances, Tsunoda seems to have hit a ceiling within Red Bull. Insiders suggest Helmut Marko is open to Tsunoda’s promotion, but Christian Horner has reservations. These hesitations have left Tsunoda feeling like a distant fourth in the pecking order, behind Perez, Lawson, Ricciardo, and even newcomer Franco Colapinto, who has recently emerged as a potential future prospect.
Tsunoda acknowledges that he doesn’t fully understand why his candidacy hasn’t gained more traction.
“Even if they say I’m in the mix, I don’t know if that’s true. I hope I’m in the mix, but if not, I don’t know what more I should do. I’ll just keep pushing.”
The Honda Factor
Tsunoda’s situation is complicated by the split between Honda and Red Bull, with Honda aligning itself with Aston Martin for 2026. As a Honda-backed driver, Tsunoda’s leverage within Red Bull has diminished, a reality that isn’t lost on him.
“Maybe the dynamics changed after Mr. [Dietrich] Mateschitz passed away,” he suggested, referencing the late Red Bull founder.
The Clock Is Ticking
Tsunoda has a post-season test with Red Bull’s RB20 lined up, but he feels his performance in the final two races of 2024 will matter more. With RB fighting for sixth in the Constructors’ Championship, Tsunoda believes delivering that result could strengthen his case.
“I feel responsible if we don’t achieve P6, but the Constructors’ title is about the team, not just one driver. If Red Bull says P6 is the deciding factor, that’s a difficult thing to accept.”
The Red Bull Car Debate
While Perez has struggled to tame the Red Bull car’s tricky handling, Tsunoda is confident the car suits his style based on simulator sessions.
“It’s sharp, fast, and enjoyable to drive. From what I’ve experienced, I think it suits me well.”
The Risk of Speaking Out
Tsunoda’s increasingly vocal criticism of Red Bull’s decision-making could be a double-edged sword. His frustrations are understandable, but publicly airing them might reinforce the doubts Horner and others reportedly have about his maturity and composure. The situation evokes memories of Carlos Sainz’s 2017 comments about being stuck at Toro Rosso, which led to his exit from the Red Bull program entirely.
What’s Next for Tsunoda?
If Red Bull opts for continuity with Perez, or pivots to Lawson or Colapinto, it would send a clear message to Tsunoda: his ceiling within the Red Bull system has been reached. In that scenario, Tsunoda would need to explore options outside the Red Bull ecosystem, though no immediate suitors are apparent.
Red Bull’s Perspective
Red Bull doesn’t owe Tsunoda a seat unless they see him as integral to their future. If they view him as a reliable RB anchor, keeping the second team competitive without angling for a promotion, his current rhetoric undermines that role. On the other hand, if they genuinely believe he lacks the qualities needed for the main team, Tsunoda’s frustrations will not change their minds.
The Verdict
Yuki Tsunoda’s ambition and talent are undeniable, but his future within Red Bull hangs by a thread. His performance in the final two races and his ability to navigate the political complexities of F1 will determine whether he gets the chance he craves—or if he’s forced to seek a new path outside the Red Bull family.
