Probing the annals of Formula 1 history, we delve into the qualifying matchups of seven prodigious drivers from the recent past – Ayrton Senna, Michael Schumacher, Fernando Alonso, Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel, Max Verstappen, and Charles Leclerc. These comparisons, meticulously analyzed in terms of percentages to pole positions for their best qualifying times relative to the fastest qualifying time, shine a revealing light on the drivers’ prowess.
We have meticulously selected and averaged races for each season where an equitable comparison was feasible. Notably, for the era (2003-09) when cars ran in Q3 with their opening race stint fuel loads, the times have been adjusted to mirror the different fuel loads, using the precise weight penalty correlation for each individual track, as utilized by the teams during that period.
However, let’s not forget that qualifying only represents one facet of driver comparison and is far from being definitive. A laptime is an amalgamation of not just the drivers’ relative performance on the day, but also myriad unmeasurable elements like their status within the team, engine differences, tyre allocations, and more.
A peculiar observation is the massive offsets during the pre-telemetry part of Senna’s career. This could be attributed to the fact that in the later years, team-mates could scrutinize telemetry and pinpoint where the laptime was being gained or lost.
These numbers serve as an accurate snapshot of history and bring forth intriguing insights. For instance, only two of the seven drivers selected – Senna and Leclerc – have managed to outqualify every team-mate throughout their careers. While Senna’s career is complete, Leclerc’s is still unfolding.
Interestingly, the remarkable differences between Senna and his teammates Satoru Nakajima and Johnny Dumfries could be due to a myriad of factors, such as unequally prepared Lotuses and differing turbo settings/tyre allocation, testing hours, access to engineers, and more.
Drawing a comparison between the past and present, Marc Surer elucidates how during his part-season at Brabham in 1985, even a short conversation with Gordon Murray was considered a huge achievement. This contrasts starkly with the abundance of data and engineering access that both drivers enjoy in modern F1.
Performance is never consistent, as is evident from Michael Schumacher’s example. He outqualified every team-mate in his initial F1 career (1991-2006), but during his comeback years, he was significantly outqualified by Nico Rosberg. A similar pattern emerges when we look at Vettel’s close comparison to Leclerc in 2019, and his complete slump in 2020.
It’s important to remember that these numbers should be treated as a guide, as they can sometimes paint a misleading picture without context. For instance, Vettel didn’t suddenly lose around half-second in ability from one season to the next, but the numbers seem to suggest that.
In the annals of F1 history, drivers who have outqualified a ‘great’ over a season at least once include names like Tonio Liuzzi, Nico Rosberg, Jarno Trulli, Jenson Button, Esteban Ocon, Alonso, George Russell, Daniel Ricciardo, and Carlos Sainz.
Finally, the quality of team-mates also impacts these margins. For instance, Hamilton and Vettel have had a particularly robust set of team-mates, while Alonso and Verstappen have had slightly less formidable ones. In conclusion, these comparisons offer enlightening insights while also highlighting the many variables that can influence driver performance.
