Riley Herbst’s Cup Series debut in the No. 35 23XI Racing Toyota has been met with skepticism. Many believe his Monster Energy sponsorship played a bigger role in landing the seat than his actual on-track results. But Denny Hamlin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. see it differently—and both believe that Herbst is ready to exceed expectations.
While Corey Heim was heavily rumored for 23XI’s third car, the team instead shocked everyone by signing Herbst. It was seen as a corporate-driven decision, but Hamlin has full confidence in his driver’s ability, boldly predicting:
“I really feel confident that Riley will outperform expectations this year.”
And it’s not just Hamlin backing him up. Dale Earnhardt Jr. recently admitted that he initially doubted Herbst’s Cup potential—but he’s now changing his tune.
Why Dale Jr. Believes Herbst Could Be a Hidden Gem
On a recent episode of The Dale Jr. Download, the NASCAR Hall of Famer compared Herbst’s progress to Cole Custer’s return to the Cup Series. While Custer comes in as a former Xfinity Series champion and Cup race winner, Junior believes Herbst’s upward trajectory is more impressive.
“Probably Riley, he’s going to surprise some people. I’ll be honest I did not think much in terms of what his potential was years ago… but over the last year and a half, you know something’s clicked.”
Junior acknowledged that Herbst was once just a mid-pack Xfinity driver. But in the last two seasons, he has found a new level of consistency and race-winning pace, with all three of his Xfinity wins coming in that stretch.
Herbst won at Las Vegas and Phoenix last season, proving he can handle high-pressure situations. And at 23XI Racing, he will have a race-winning organization behind him, rather than a struggling Stewart-Haas Racing team.
Custer vs. Herbst: Who Has the Edge in 2025?
Comparing Herbst to Cole Custer, Earnhardt Jr. gave a nuanced take:
“I think Riley is still gonna make some mistakes and Cole will see more checkered flags as he’s going to finish more races.”
Custer has a Cup Series win under his belt (Kentucky, 2020) and was the Xfinity champion in 2023. He’s been a top-tier prospect for years, and his return to Cup is widely expected to be more successful.
But Junior added that Herbst’s race pace might be stronger overall:
“If you’re looking at the end-of-the-year statistics, average finishes or top fives or top 10s, Cole’s numbers may look better, but average running position—Riley does a little better.”
This suggests that while Custer may be more consistent, Herbst could have better speed but more growing pains.
Will Herbst Be a Contender or a Backmarker?
There are two major factors that could work in Herbst’s favor:
- 23XI Racing is a Playoff-Caliber Team – While Cole Custer returns to a revamped Haas Factory Team (a new project that’s yet to prove itself), Herbst will be in a Toyota-backed organization with race-winning equipment.
- He Has Momentum on His Side – Herbst’s steady rise in performance over the past two years shows that he’s figuring things out at the right time.
If Herbst adapts quickly to the Next Gen car and avoids early rookie mistakes, he could be one of the biggest surprises of 2025.
The Verdict: Can Herbst Outshine Custer?
Right now, Custer is the safer bet for immediate success. He’s proven at both the Xfinity and Cup level and is expected to finish higher in the standings.
But Herbst has the better team, better equipment, and higher potential upside. If he develops quickly and can capitalize on 23XI’s resources, he could outperform expectations—just like Hamlin predicted.
If Herbst wins a race or makes the playoffs, he’ll shut down the doubters for good. Will he? Only time will tell.
