In a move that has set the F1 driver market ablaze, Red Bull’s decision to drop Daniel Ricciardo mid-season in favor of young talent Liam Lawson has raised eyebrows. With just six rounds left in the 2024 season, the shake-up at Red Bull’s B-team, Visa Cash App RB (formerly AlphaTauri), has left many wondering if this is merely a test for Lawson or part of a larger strategy for 2025. And some, like former F1 champion Nico Rosberg, believe it could spell disaster for Sergio Perez’s future with the team.
Since the start of the season, Red Bull’s driver lineup has been in flux, but the abrupt mid-season axing of Ricciardo has fueled speculation about bigger plans brewing behind the scenes. Ricciardo, who was brought back into the Red Bull fold to stabilize the team, struggled to deliver the consistent results needed. While many point to his lack of form as the reason for his dismissal, Rosberg has thrown in a conspiracy theory that could indicate Red Bull’s real motive: testing Lawson as a potential 2025 replacement for Perez.
Lawson first stepped in for Ricciardo last season when the Aussie was sidelined by injury after the Dutch GP. The 22-year-old New Zealander quickly found his rhythm, scoring points in his third race at Singapore. Now, a year later, with Ricciardo dropped after this year’s Singapore GP, Lawson will be given six races to prove himself in Austin and beyond.
Rosberg’s theory is simple: Red Bull is using this opportunity to evaluate Lawson as a potential future driver for their main team. Perez, once a fierce competitor who briefly challenged Max Verstappen for the title last year, has seen his form nosedive. “It’s very, very strange,” Rosberg said of Perez’s sudden drop in performance. “They’re giving him a chance now until the end of the year, obviously, but if Lawson does amazingly well in these last six races, he could certainly be considered for the main Red Bull seat next year.”
This six-race trial for Lawson isn’t just about replacing Ricciardo at the B-team; it’s about the potential to take over Perez’s seat at Red Bull Racing. With Perez’s performances slipping, this could be the perfect opportunity for the Austrian team to assess Lawson as a long-term investment.
For Perez, the stakes are higher than ever. If the 22-year-old New Zealander impresses in the upcoming races, the Mexican will need to up his game significantly to secure his future at Red Bull. The team has backed Perez throughout his struggles this season, providing him with all the necessary resources to improve. But the upcoming rounds will be a crucial test for both drivers.
Red Bull is also reportedly working on upgrades to make the RB20 more driver-friendly, which could help Perez regain his form. “We’re looking to build on the understanding we’ve gained since Monza,” said Red Bull’s technical director. “We want to take the car to a place where it’s balanced between both axles and inspires confidence in the drivers.”
These upgrades could finally put an end to Perez’s handling issues, which have plagued him throughout the season. If Perez can take advantage of the new setup and close the gap to Verstappen, it may save his seat. If not, Lawson’s strong performances could make him a serious contender for Red Bull’s 2025 lineup.
With Red Bull trailing McLaren by 41 points in the Constructors’ Championship and Ferrari breathing down their necks, the team’s decision to bring in Lawson and focus on car upgrades is a calculated gamble. Red Bull has gone from dominating the standings to facing a potential third-place finish in what has been a dramatic second half of the season. The next six races could decide not just their 2024 campaign, but also the future of their driver lineup for 2025.
