For years, writing off Red Bull Racing in Formula 1 has been a fool’s errand. The team that once entered the sport as “just a drinks company” has demolished expectations time and time again. But as 2025 dawns, an unsettling question looms over Milton Keynes: Is Red Bull’s reign on borrowed time?
Last season saw the team’s iron grip on dominance slip, going from an unstoppable force to a squad winning just two of the final 14 races. Now, as McLaren, Ferrari, and Mercedes gear up for what looks to be their most competitive season yet, Red Bull faces a moment of reckoning. Will the RB21 correct the course—or confirm the beginning of a downward spiral?
Adrian Newey’s Departure: A Blow Red Bull Didn’t See Coming?
The departure of Adrian Newey, the legendary design mastermind behind Red Bull’s golden era, remains the biggest unresolved factor.
Newey himself admitted that he had grown increasingly marginalized within the team. The technical department, long eager to prove its worth beyond his shadow, started moving in a direction that he saw as flawed.
“They needed to show that they could do it on their own, so I thought, well OK, let’s give them the chance,” Newey explained in a telling interview.
The cracks were already visible in 2023, but Max Verstappen’s brilliance papered over the weaknesses. When McLaren introduced a game-changing upgrade in Miami, the scales tipped drastically. By the time Red Bull realized what was happening, it was too late.
Newey’s parting gift was a warning that Red Bull had lost its way—but whether the team listened remains to be seen.
How Red Bull Lost Its Competitive Edge
Red Bull’s early dominance under F1’s new ground-effect era was built around a suspension system that delivered unparalleled platform control. The RB18 and RB19 thrived because they could run low and stiff without suffering from porpoising.
But as aero loads increased, Red Bull’s balance issues became unmanageable. The car understeered at low speeds and oversteered at high speeds, making it tricky even for Verstappen to drive. By mid-2024, it was McLaren and Ferrari, not Red Bull, leading the innovation charge.
What truly changed the game? McLaren’s flexible front wing.
By allowing front-end load at low speeds while backing off at high speeds, McLaren solved the balance issue Red Bull was struggling with.
This advantage became undeniable, and Red Bull found itself reacting instead of leading for the first time in years.
Can Red Bull Strike Back in 2025?
The RB21 represents a critical moment in Red Bull’s modern history. With a deeply revised suspension system, the team must adapt or face being outpaced.
There’s potential for a resurgence, but there are three major concerns:
1️⃣ Liam Lawson’s Promotion Over Perez – A bold move, but is the 23-year-old ready to be Verstappen’s championship wingman? Red Bull needs a second driver capable of maximizing constructor points, and Lawson, with just 11 F1 starts, is still an unknown quantity.
2️⃣ The Flexi-Wing Battle Isn’t Over – Red Bull felt that McLaren and Mercedes bent the rules on front wing flexibility. Now, a mid-season technical directive will limit flexing by 50% from the Spanish Grand Prix onward. This could reshuffle the pecking order once again.
3️⃣ Verstappen’s Future Is No Longer Certain – Flirting with a Mercedes move, considering Aston Martin for 2026, and now Red Bull’s engine division going independent—Verstappen’s future isn’t locked down. If 2025 turns into a repeat of late 2024, could Verstappen walk away before Red Bull’s Honda-era even begins?
Red Bull’s Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios for 2025
🔵 Best-Case Scenario
- The RB21 corrects last year’s balance issues.
- Verstappen wins consistently and Lawson proves a worthy No. 2.
- The new power unit program shows early promise.
🔴 Worst-Case Scenario
- The RB21 continues struggling, opening the door for McLaren and Ferrari.
- Verstappen grows frustrated and explores an exit.
- Red Bull’s engine program falters, leading to a repeat of its post-2013 decline.
Could Verstappen walk mid-season? Given his status, if Red Bull falls apart early, don’t rule it out.
Final Word: Don’t Write Red Bull Off Yet—But Their Time Might Be Running Out
F1’s three-time defending champions are now at a crossroads. If the RB21 isn’t up to the task, Red Bull could be staring down its greatest crisis in a decade.
The battle isn’t just against McLaren and Ferrari anymore—it’s against their own past success. The Red Bull juggernaut has bounced back from adversity before, but this time, the stakes are even higher.
And if they fail? The Verstappen era could end sooner than anyone expects.