As Formula 1 prepares for a seismic rule change in 2026, teams are faced with a brutal balancing act—continue developing their 2025 challenger for a title push or shift focus early to gain an edge on the new regulations.
For Red Bull, the decision is clear: they won’t surrender a championship fight in 2025 just to prepare for the future.
That’s the bold stance taken by Technical Director Pierre Wache, who insists that Red Bull will stay fully engaged in the title hunt—even as rivals like Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes weigh their own strategies.
“If we have a chance to fight for the championship in 2025—and I think we will—then you will never throw away a championship,” Wache told Autosport.
But is Red Bull making the right call? Or could history repeat itself, with a late pivot to 2026 putting them at a disadvantage when the new era begins?
The 2026 Problem: Why Teams Face a Difficult Choice
Formula 1’s 2026 regulation reset will completely reshape the sport, featuring:
- Radically different chassis designs
- New, sustainable hybrid power units
- Aerodynamic overhaul aimed at improving overtaking
With the cost cap restricting development budgets, teams can’t afford to go all-in on both seasons.
“It will be a difficult decision for sure,” Wache admitted. “We will go with a strategy at the beginning of the season, but that strategy has a massive chance to change.”
In other words: If Red Bull starts the year in a title fight, expect them to keep pushing. If they struggle, don’t be shocked if they flip the switch early.
Mercedes’ 2021 Mistake: The Warning Sign for Red Bull
Red Bull’s current approach seems eerily similar to what Mercedes attempted in 2021.
Back then, Mercedes and Red Bull were locked in an all-out war for the championship between Lewis Hamilton and Max Verstappen.
While Mercedes won the Constructors’ title, their late shift to 2022 development backfired—leaving them stuck with an uncompetitive car in the new era.
Red Bull, meanwhile, took a more balanced approach and dominated the new regulations from 2022 onward.
Now, in 2025, Red Bull could find itself on the other side of the equation.
Will pushing for another title in the current era hurt their chances of starting strong in 2026?
Red Bull’s Unexpected 2024 Setback—Could It Be a Hidden Advantage?
Despite Max Verstappen cruising to his fourth straight Drivers’ Championship, Red Bull shockingly slipped to third in the Constructors’ standings in 2024.
At first glance, that sounds like a disaster.
But here’s the twist—it actually gives them an advantage heading into 2026.
Because of F1’s wind tunnel testing allocation rules, Red Bull now gets more development time than McLaren and Ferrari.
Wache acknowledges this could be a major boost for the team, but he isn’t relying on it alone.
“It is potentially a big advantage for 2026, and I hope that we use it properly,” he said.
“But it is not because you’ve got more money or more wind tunnel time that you will perform better.”
Translation: Red Bull still needs to get the execution right.
Verdict—Can Red Bull Win Now and Dominate Later?
Red Bull is taking a gamble.
- If they dominate in early 2025, they’ll stay committed to the fight—risking a late transition to 2026.
- If they struggle, they’ll likely shift resources mid-season to ensure a strong start in the new regulations.
- Their wind tunnel advantage might help, but it guarantees nothing.
One thing is certain—if they get it wrong, Red Bull could suffer the same fate as Mercedes did in 2022.
So, is staying in the 2025 fight worth it? Or should Red Bull pivot early to protect its future dominance?
The answer may define the next era of Formula 1.