Red Bull Racing, once the undisputed titan of Formula 1, now faces a daunting task: closing the gap to McLaren in 2025. After watching the Woking-based team surge to both Drivers’ and Constructors’ titles last season, Red Bull’s top brass has admitted that matching McLaren’s meteoric rise will be a “difficult” challenge, given the tools currently at their disposal.
The Struggles of a Giant
Max Verstappen’s fourth Drivers’ Championship may have been a highlight for Red Bull in 2024, but the team endured a sharp decline mid-season, slipping to third in the Constructors’ standings. The RB20’s once-dominant performance deteriorated as updates failed to translate on track, exposing a correlation crisis within Red Bull’s development tools.
Pierre Wache, Red Bull’s Technical Director, didn’t mince words about the team’s predicament:
“When you have a correlation issue, then for sure you are a little bit lost. You cannot trust your tools any more.”
At the heart of the problem is Red Bull’s aging wind tunnel, the oldest currently in use on the grid. While a state-of-the-art replacement is scheduled for 2027, the team must contend with its existing limitations for two more seasons. Wache emphasized the heightened accuracy required to extract performance gains in this era of mature ground effect regulations, where the margins for improvement are razor-thin.
McLaren’s Meteoric Rise
Red Bull’s plight has been starkly contrasted by McLaren’s resurgence. Starting 2024 off the pace, the British team unlocked its car’s potential with a Miami upgrade, culminating in their first Constructors’ Championship since 2008. Unlike Red Bull and Ferrari, McLaren avoided major development missteps, enabling a consistent climb to the top.
Wache acknowledged McLaren’s impressive turnaround but pointed to their prior struggles:
“At the beginning of the year, they were completely nowhere. The year before they were completely nowhere. In 2022, they were completely nowhere.”
Despite this, Red Bull knows McLaren’s 2024 success sets a formidable benchmark. Their ability to sustain such momentum has made them the team to beat.
The Path Ahead for Red Bull
Red Bull is now grappling with a harsh reality: overcoming their tools’ limitations and rebuilding confidence in their development process. Wache conceded:
“It is more difficult to find extra performance now, even more with the tools that we have available to us.”
With a redesigned RB21 set to debut, the team must find innovative ways to regain its edge. However, with McLaren’s new dominance and Ferrari’s expected recovery, 2025 is shaping up to be one of Red Bull’s toughest seasons yet.
Will Red Bull Rise Again?
The path forward is uncertain. Red Bull’s ability to overcome its correlation crisis and innovate within its constraints will determine whether it can challenge McLaren or risk falling further behind. As the 2025 season looms, the question remains: can Red Bull recapture the brilliance of its heyday, or has the team been dethroned for good?
