The Grand Prix qualifying in Shanghai was a thrilling roller-coaster that marked Oscar Piastri’s emergence as a formidable challenger. Piastri, driving for McLaren, leveraged the car’s capabilities, a feat he couldn’t accomplish on Friday due to a compromised SQ3 run plan during sprint qualifying. His persistence paid off, resulting in his first Grand Prix pole – a significant stepping stone towards potentially winning the race.
The importance of this achievement came to the fore considering the widespread graining of front tyres during the sprint. In similar conditions, Lewis Hamilton had previously carved his path to victory in the sprint race after securing the pole and winning the start. Hamilton’s Ferrari led Piastri’s by 7 seconds after 19 laps, underscoring the value of clear air in the high-grip, long-corner circuit that was wearing down the front tyres.
However, Lando Norris, Piastri’s McLaren teammate, struggled with the front graining issue, saying, “Whenever we have front graining, I really struggle.” Norris, who qualified third, 0.15s behind Piastri, with George Russell’s Mercedes sandwiched between them, admitted feeling less comfortable in the car in China than in Australia. He conceded that despite McLaren having the fastest car, he couldn’t match Piastri’s performance due to his own inability to put together a consistent lap.
In a stunning turn of events, Piastri, who was 0.2s down on his final lap as he neared the Turn 14 hairpin, didn’t abandon his lap. Instead, he executed a near-perfect hairpin turn, which, coupled with a committed run through the final turn, improved his previous effort by half-a-tenth. This determination ensured his pole position.
The McLaren team benefitted from the longer Q3 of GP qualifying and the availability of two sets of softs, which eliminated the need for a push-cool-push lap, the very thing that had tripped them up previously. Yet, even with all runners on the same plan, McLaren’s advantage was not as substantial as it could have been. Despite no compromises this time, Piastri was only 0.082s ahead of Russell.
So, where did McLaren’s Melbourne advantage disappear? The answer lies in the shift of tyre limitation towards the fronts due to the rubbering in of the track. The McLaren’s superior rear tyre temperature control, which had previously given it an edge, was less effective in these conditions.
Russell’s lap was a surprise as his experimentation with preparation laps finally paid off. He even emulated Racing Bulls’ slow prep lap, which brought his car to life, particularly in the slow Turn 9 where he gained almost 0.2s.
Meanwhile, Ferrari’s pace was elusive, with Hamilton slipping from sprint polesitter and race winner to qualifying only fifth for the grand prix. Hamilton was less than 0.1s slower than he’d been in SQ3, but McLaren and Russell managed to unlock their potential, while Max Verstappen managed a time a few hundredths faster than Hamilton.
The performance patterns of the teams revealed that McLaren’s downforce was evident not only in the corner entry speeds but also in being the slowest of the big four at the end of the back straight. The Red Bull came out fastest there, with Mercedes and Ferrari following suit.
The outcome of the race remains uncertain, with the medium tyre clearly well past its best after 19 laps of the sprint and the race being 56 laps. The strategy could be a one-stop or a two, but one thing is certain – whoever is running at the front has an even bigger advantage than normal. And as it stands, it’s Piastri’s race to lose.