The United States Grand Prix left Mercedes grappling with yet another frustrating performance, leading team principal Toto Wolff to declare, “we’re back to underdog status” after one of the team’s most disheartening weekends of 2024. But was this all down to an upgrade package gone wrong? Not quite.
As trackside engineering director Andrew Shovlin put it, “the update kit has shown some promise, but we’ve not had a single clean session.” This sums up the core of Mercedes’ issues—flashes of speed, but an inability to harness it consistently across the weekend.
Mercedes was tantalizingly close to grabbing pole in sprint qualifying, with George Russell just 0.012 seconds behind Max Verstappen. However, Russell’s push at Turn 1 caused a slight snap, and Lewis Hamilton’s lockup at Turn 12 after yellow flags from Franco Colapinto’s spin hindered his chances.
The weekend spiraled from there. Russell’s crash in Saturday’s qualifying at Turn 19 forced the team to revert to an old-spec car for the race, while Hamilton’s sprint race was compromised by a front wheelhub failure, leaving the car massively oversteery. Grand Prix qualifying was equally painful, with Hamilton failing to make Q2, while Russell’s crash compounded the team’s woes.
Wolff stressed that Mercedes doesn’t have a fundamental issue with the upgrade package, but rather, the challenge lies in the interaction between aerodynamics and mechanical aspects of the car. “We’ve got to continue with the upgrade,” Wolff explained, “it makes more sense than not because there’s a lot of lap time on the table.”
Despite a promising start in Austin, Mercedes’ inconsistent performance has been a hallmark of their 2024 campaign. Whether it’s a new upgrade or a previous version, the team’s performance continues to swing wildly, an issue Wolff admits has plagued them under the current regulations.
The key issue Mercedes faces isn’t just raw speed but maintaining it. Wolff pointed out that this inconsistency—while affecting all teams under this ruleset—seems to hit Mercedes the hardest. “We’re not far away,” Wolff said, but admitted that it’s been two and a half years of trying to unlock the potential of their ground-effect cars. The performance has been there—three wins in four races earlier in the season—but it often disappears just as quickly as it emerges.
Mercedes’ new front wing and other aero upgrades introduced in Austin were a bold move, but the team’s lack of clean running left them unable to extract the potential benefits. And while the upgraded front wing was aimed at adding more downforce, it also left Mercedes vulnerable to the inconsistent grip and changing track conditions, further compounding their performance issues.
The problem isn’t unique to Mercedes—other teams, like McLaren, Red Bull, and Ferrari, have also experienced fluctuations in performance. But for Mercedes, the stakes are higher. As the 2024 season draws to a close, the team knows that these issues must be addressed if they hope to be more than just a sporadic race winner in 2025.
Mercedes’ rollercoaster form is emblematic of a deeper aerodynamic conundrum. Their upgrades, particularly the front wing adjustments, have the potential to unlock significant lap time, but they also introduce new variables, such as ambient and track temperatures, that have thrown the car’s balance off-kilter.
The revamped front wing design allows more flexibility in the flap assembly, creating more downforce at high speeds. However, this also means that the car becomes more sensitive to minor variations in track conditions, which can dramatically alter its performance session to session.
Meanwhile, Mercedes’ sidepod and underfloor adjustments are designed to improve airflow over critical parts of the car, but the impact of these changes has been inconsistent. By pushing the limits of their underfloor and sidepod design, Mercedes has found more performance but also increased their vulnerability to changing conditions.
This all adds up to a team that has the potential to challenge for wins, but one that is often undone by its own car. Wolff’s acknowledgment that Mercedes is back to “underdog status” may be painful for fans to hear, but it also reflects the team’s understanding of just how much work lies ahead.
In the remaining races of 2024, Mercedes faces a critical test. Will they find the answers they need to maintain consistency? Or will they continue to be plagued by the same issues that have haunted them since the introduction of the ground-effect regulations? One thing is clear—without a solution, 2025 could be another year of frustration for the once-dominant team.
