As the clock ticks down on Mercedes’ final year under the existing Formula 1 regulations, the question that looms large is whether the Brackley-based team can demonstrate their mastery of these rules before they are cast aside. Mercedes, once the reigning champions under the previous regulations, has had a challenging time with the current rules, slipping to a fourth-place finish in the Constructors’ Championship in 2024, despite it being their most successful year in this cycle.
James Allison, Mercedes’ technical director, returned to the helm of the team’s technical progress mid-way through 2023. He had initially stepped aside in 2021, a year that marked the end of the previous regulation set. During this period, Mercedes enjoyed an unparalleled winning streak, bagging every title since the introduction of hybrid engines in 2014, except the Drivers’ Championship in 2021. However, Allison’s successor, Mike Elliott, could not replicate the same level of success, leading the team down a path of design and development that did not yield the desired results.
The initial stumbling block to Mercedes’ progress was a victory in the 2022 Brazilian Grand Prix, which was the first win for George Russell. While this triumph seemed to validate an otherwise flawed design strategy, it also resulted in the team sticking to their course of action longer than they should have.
The return of Allison in 2023, coupled with a significant upgrade package introduced at the Monaco Grand Prix, started to turn the tide for Mercedes. The 2024 W15 car, a product of Allison’s influence, was a considerable improvement in terms of competitiveness. Both Russell and Lewis Hamilton managed to clinch four victories with the W15. However, despite its speed, the W15’s versatility fell short when compared to McLaren and Ferrari’s offerings, resulting in Mercedes ending the season on par with Red Bull, both teams puzzled by the inconsistent performance of their cars.
The 2025 season presents a unique scenario for Mercedes. With Kimi Antonelli replacing Hamilton, the team is looking towards a fresh start. It’s also their last chance to prove their prowess under the current regulations, having spent three years learning and addressing its weaknesses. The team has incorporated “sizeable changes” to its final offering, the W16, based on lessons learned from its predecessor.
Unlike Aston Martin, who has chosen to implement extensive aerodynamic changes, Mercedes has opted for an evolutionary strategy. Russell believes this approach will bring about a “significant change” in the car’s competitiveness. The team has been meticulous in their simulator running, ensuring not to fall into the same pitfalls as before.
The W16 features a new front suspension and aero surface changes. However, the real test for Mercedes will be during the pre-season testing in Bahrain this week. Allison has expressed optimism about the improvements made to the car, particularly in addressing issues like the W15’s reluctance to turn in slow corners and the imbalance in tyre temperatures that resulted in inconsistent performance.
The second sector of the Bahrain International Circuit, particularly the slow right-hand Turn 8 and left-hand Turn 10, will be crucial in determining whether Mercedes has managed to master the current regulations. Even if they fail to win the title this year, it won’t be a disaster, considering the regulations are set to change next year. However, a victory would certainly save the team from looking back at this period with regret.
As for the new recruit Antonelli, his first session in the W16 is scheduled for Wednesday morning, followed by Russell in the afternoon. With Russell now likely to assume a more comfortable leadership role at Mercedes, the team will be hoping that the W16 can provide him with a car capable of challenging for the World Championship for the fourth and final time under the current regulations.
