The data from the second Free Practice session at the 2025 Australian Grand Prix paints a picture that could spell trouble for McLaren’s competitors. McLaren, having locked up a 2-3 finish at the Albert Park Circuit, appear to be in a position of strength, a development that could send a shiver down the grid.
Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris, McLaren’s star drivers, trailed behind Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc by a mere 0.124 and 0.141 respectively. This gives the Scuderia team a glimmer of hope, hinting at a possible comeback that could thrust them back into contention for the top spot.
However, a closer examination of the data reveals a different narrative. The figures from the Free Practice session suggest that Andrea Stella’s team still have more speed to unlock and could potentially outpace the Italians by 0.170, leaving Red Bull and Mercedes in the rear-view mirror during the qualifying phase.
While Ferrari seemingly held the upper hand in high-speed and low-speed corners on paper, experts suggest that the team may have deployed a strategy involving higher fuel load and reduced downforce to conceal their true capabilities. Moreover, Ferrari enjoyed a 0.3 advantage on Melbourne’s straights. By trimming their car to add downforce for cornering, they could potentially retain their net advantage and regain competitiveness in high-speed corners, all while improving braking and entry in low-speed corners.
Should Ferrari execute this strategy, it could also result in better tyre conservation during the race, thereby improving their race pace. If this is the case, they could potentially boast a 0.210 advantage over Ferrari, leaving Mercedes and Red Bull trailing by 0.030 and 0.070 respectively.
All of this points to a potentially thrilling battle for the podium. Yet, McLaren seems to be in a league of their own when it comes to vying for the Grand Prix win. The data suggests that Norris and Piastri could be the ones to watch, hinting at an exclusive contest for victory between the two and serving a stern warning to their rivals at the 2025 Australian GP.
As for Williams, the data paints a less promising picture. Despite a surprising performance in testing and the season’s first FP1 session that saw Carlos Sainz finish second, the team is expected to be significantly off the pace in the race.
The data predicts that Williams will be trailing by 0.630 behind McLaren’s pace and 0.314 behind the expected tussle between Ferrari, Mercedes, and Red Bull. Even though Sainz’s chances of repeating his 2024 Australian GP win seem slim, it would be unwise to rule out a good performance from Williams just yet. The qualifying sessions could still hold surprises, with Williams being in a position to strike.
To conclude, while McLaren and Ferrari seem to be the front runners for the pole position, Williams, Red Bull and the Silver Arrows are not far behind. A single misstep from Max Verstappen, Liam Lawson, George Russell or Kimi Antonelli could open up opportunities for Sainz and Albon.