Oscar Piastri’s triumph in the Azerbaijan Grand Prix, paired with Lando Norris’s heroic charge to fourth from 15th on the grid, has flipped the 2024 Formula 1 championship on its head. McLaren now leads the Constructors’ Championship by 20 points, a seismic shift in the balance of power that leaves Red Bull scrambling. The big question: Can McLaren maintain its edge, or is Red Bull poised for a late-season fightback?
This race was an indicator that Max Verstappen, despite being the championship leader, is vulnerable. For the second race in a row, he wasn’t near the podium, and while McLaren capitalized on Red Bull’s struggles, the “wrong” McLaren driver won in Baku. Piastri, not Norris, took home the victory, meaning Verstappen’s damage in the Drivers’ Championship was minimal, his lead shrinking only slightly.
McLaren’s Masterstroke
McLaren executed one of its most impressive races of the season despite what initially seemed like a pace disadvantage to Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes during Friday’s practice sessions. Piastri outperformed expectations, and Norris was instrumental, delaying Sergio Perez to help his teammate avoid the undercut. The result? McLaren now sits at the top of the Constructors’ standings with 476 points, well-deserved after an incredible development curve this season.
Red Bull, however, finds itself in unfamiliar territory. While Perez was competitive until his late-race crash with Carlos Sainz, Verstappen struggled with rear-end instability and braking issues in his RB20. While the latest floor upgrade benefited Perez, Verstappen found little joy in Baku, further extending his winless streak to seven races.
Verstappen’s Vulnerability
Verstappen was there for the taking this weekend, but Norris’s qualifying misfortune—disqualified due to yellow flags—meant McLaren couldn’t deal the Dutchman a significant blow. Verstappen remains 59 points ahead of Norris, but the Red Bull camp must now reckon with a new reality: McLaren is their primary threat. The concern for Red Bull is palpable. There’s potential in the car, as Perez showed, but Verstappen’s struggles mean the team has to find solutions fast.
Despite his underwhelming weekend, Verstappen still has enough of a points cushion to control his destiny, particularly if he avoids mistakes. But McLaren’s resurgence puts pressure on Red Bull in a way they haven’t experienced in recent seasons.
Piastri’s Rise and McLaren’s PR Misstep
The timing of McLaren’s public declaration that they’d back Norris as their number-one driver now looks awkward. Piastri’s victory, coupled with his impressive run of results in the last six races, casts doubt on the need for such a premature announcement. While it’s understandable for McLaren to prioritize Norris in the Drivers’ Championship, they may have created an unnecessary distraction by publicly staking this claim.
Internally, Piastri’s performance proves McLaren has two top-tier drivers, both capable of capitalizing on the team’s progress. The Woking squad should be focused on winning both the Constructors’ and Drivers’ Championships, without letting internal hierarchy dictate the narrative.
Red Bull’s Uphill Battle
For Red Bull, Sunday’s race was a gut punch. Perez’s collision with Sainz not only cost them valuable points but also highlighted the increasing fragility of their championship campaign. Verstappen’s lack of pace is alarming, and with only seven races left, Red Bull needs to introduce more than incremental upgrades if they hope to catch McLaren in the Constructors’ Championship.
The Drivers’ Championship is still Verstappen’s to lose, but the Constructors’ battle looks far more precarious. McLaren’s lead is growing, and unless Red Bull finds a solution to its pace problems, their decade-long dominance could end.
The Road Ahead
For Norris to overtake Verstappen, he needs to gain an average of nine points per race. It’s a steep hill to climb, especially given Verstappen’s consistency when the car behaves. However, with 206 points still up for grabs over the remaining races and sprints, nothing is off the table.
Red Bull must focus on fixing the balance issues that plagued Verstappen in Baku and ensure that Perez continues to extract the car’s full potential. The Constructors’ Championship may come down to the wire, and McLaren is well-placed to press home its advantage.
The Final Verdict
McLaren’s victory in Baku has dramatically altered the F1 championship landscape. With seven races left, they’ve proven they are a force to be reckoned with, while Red Bull faces its biggest challenge in years. The Constructors’ battle is closer than it has been in a decade, with Ferrari still in the mix at 425 points.
While Verstappen holds a strong position in the Drivers’ Championship, he must adapt quickly to stay ahead. Red Bull’s car issues mean the final stretch of the season will be a nail-biter. F1 fans can look forward to a championship fight that could very well go down to the last race.
