The Formula 1 preseason testing has reached a quite understandable conclusion. Max Verstappen, who finished fourth on the last day, set a fast lap time of 1m30.755s on Friday afternoon, using C3 tires with medium durability. This time, when adjusted for new C3 tires, equates to a lap time of around 1m30.5s.
The three cars ahead of Red Bull in the final time tables – Ferrari, Mercedes, and Sauber – achieved their times using the C4 tire, which is approximately 0.6s faster than the C3.
By theoretically adjusting everyone’s times to new C3 tires, Red Bull seems to have an advantage of about 0.4 seconds over Charles Leclerc’s Ferrari and George Russell’s Mercedes in a single lap. Ferrari consistently showed good pace throughout the three days of testing, while Mercedes only demonstrated its true potential at the end of the last day.
In addition, Mercedes did not perform a race simulation, focusing on shorter races to evaluate test items. Therefore, the full extent of Mercedes’ performance is unknown. However, even disregarding the C4 tire that Russell used to set the second-best time, his lap time with C3 tires is very close to Leclerc’s. This suggests that Ferrari may have a slight advantage over Mercedes based on the observed data. However, it is important to note that fuel weights are unknown.
The fact that no one came close to Carlos Sainz’s time of 1m29.9s with C4 tires on Thursday suggests that the track may have become slower on the last day. Comparing Sainz’s performance on the second day with Perez’s, Sainz had a small advantage of about 0.1s. On Friday, when adjusting for tire differences, Verstappen surpassed Leclerc by 0.4s.
Using Verstappen’s theoretical time with new tires of 1m30.5s as a reference, the approximate order of lap pace is as follows:
– Red Bull
– Ferrari/Mercedes + 0.4s
– McLaren +0.5s
– Aston Martin +0.6s
– RB/Williams +0.9s
– Sauber/Alpine/Haas +1.0s
Sauber replicated its strategy from a few years ago by producing a fast lap on the last lap with the softest tire compound. This allowed Zhou Guanyu to achieve the third-best time. However, based on previous performance, Sauber seems to be in a closely contested group with RB, Williams, Alpine, and Haas.
The picture changes slightly when considering race simulations. Red Bull, Aston Martin, McLaren, Williams, RB, Sauber, and Haas completed a three-stint race simulation. Ferrari completed only the first two stints and a partial third before the end of the session. Mercedes and Alpine did not attempt a race simulation.
Verstappen recorded the fastest race simulation, significantly more competitive than Perez’s simulation from the previous day, where Perez seemed to encounter issues. In the two completed stints by Leclerc, his pace was equivalent to Verstappen’s. However, without the completion of the third stint, it is difficult to fully validate Leclerc’s performance.
Ferrari team boss Fred Vasseur acknowledged that tire degradation was significantly better than the previous year, suggesting that Ferrari’s new car may have sacrificed some single-lap pace in exchange for improved race pace. Overall, it was a highly promising three days for Scuderia.
Aston Martin’s race simulation was interrupted and fell well short of the total 57-lap race distance. However, based on Fernando Alonso’s pace, assuming the same fuel load, Aston Martin would finish approximately 16 seconds behind Red Bull over the 57 laps, potentially behind Ferrari as well, with Mercedes as an unknown competitor.
Although McLaren seems to surpass Aston Martin in a single lap, their race simulation was not as strong. Oscar Piastri struggled with intense tire degradation on the C3 and C1 compounds. In fact, Piastri’s race simulation was slower than Alex Albon’s Williams and approximately equivalent to Daniel Ricciardo’s RB.
The Haas team had the weakest performance in the race simulation, finishing almost half a minute behind RB, with Zhou’s Sauber in the middle.
This summarizes the state of affairs at the end of the three days of testing, but some of the differences are small enough to make the order subject to change.
© 2024
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