Round 4 of the 2024 FIA World F1 Championship is expected to be an easy win for the current World Champions, despite Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez suggesting they will fight in Suzuka.
I’ll call your bluff as nonsense. The only thing standing in their way is themselves, like mechanical issues or other unforeseen circumstances. If the Red Bull RB20 is vulnerable in any way, it will be on tracks that require a lot of downforce, like Melbourne, Monaco, and Hungary. However, Suzuka is known to be suitable for cars designed by Adrian Newey in terms of race pace.
So expect the blue cars to quickly pull away from the rest of the pack today. If anyone has a chance to challenge the Red Bulls, it will be former teammates Lando Norris (McLaren) and Carlos Sainz (Ferrari). Sainz is coming off a win in Melbourne, while Norris is eager to secure his first Grand Prix victory.
Leading the chase against the Red Bulls, Norris provided a reality check: “It’s tough, Sergio is doing a great job. So, there’s a car that is much harder to keep up with. But we showed last year, when we were further behind them, that we could stay in touch and not fall too far behind. So, that will be our goal.”
“But realistically, we are still far off from challenging them. They are simply too quick for us. Yes, we may be faster in qualifying, but in the race, they usually pull away even further,” Norris added.
Fernando Alonso is always an exciting presence on the grid, but it remains to be seen what he can achieve starting in P5. The Aston Martin AMR24 has proven to be a challenging car to drive, as Lance Stroll can attest from his position in P16. If the first three races are any indication, Alonso may struggle to maintain his position.
It will also be a challenging race for Oscar Piastri as he seeks to compete with the top teams in his McLaren. Similarly, Charles Leclerc’s performance has decreased while Sainz’s has improved. This raises the question of whether Ferrari made a mistake in choosing to let Leclerc go for the 2025 season. Leclerc will need to prove himself to convince his bosses that he is the right choice to partner with the incoming driver, Lewis Hamilton, next year.
Speaking of which, Mercedes continues to struggle with their package. It seems they make changes to the car setup, hope for the best, and then eagerly analyze the data. They still don’t know if they will have a competitive car or a very uncompetitive one for each race.
Will Lewis Hamilton and George Russell face setbacks today in Japan? It’s a 50/50 chance, depending on which version of the W15 car shows up on Sunday.
Other stories to keep an eye on in the Japanese Grand Prix.
