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Is Denny Hamlin’s NASCAR Career on the Brink? Kevin Harvick Casts Doubt on His 2025 Championship Hopes

Harry Bright by Harry Bright
February 2, 2025
in Motorsports
Reading Time: 4 mins read
0
Denny Hamlin Faces Uncertain Future as FedEx and Mavis Tires Depart Ahead of 2025 Season – A ‘BRUTAL’ stepback for the rider with many millions at stake

Nov 10, 2024; Avondale, Arizona, USA; NASCAR Cup Series driver Denny Hamlin (11) during the NASCAR Cup Series Championship race at Phoenix Raceway. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

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The 2025 NASCAR Cup Series is shaping up to be a defining season for Denny Hamlin, and not necessarily in the way he hopes. After kicking off his 2024 campaign with three wins in the first 11 races, Hamlin’s momentum faltered, raising serious questions about his ability to finally secure that elusive first championship. Now, major sponsorship shake-ups, a new crew chief, and increased pressure from the NASCAR world have put him under the microscope like never before.

But if there’s one voice in the sport that isn’t afraid to tell it like it is, it’s Kevin Harvick. The 2014 NASCAR Cup Series champion recently gave a brutally honest assessment of Hamlin’s future, and it doesn’t paint a promising picture.


Harvick’s Blunt Take: “I Don’t Believe He Will Win a Championship”

Speaking on the first episode of his Happy Hours podcast, Harvick didn’t hesitate when asked which driver was under the most pressure heading into 2025. His immediate response?

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🗣 “Denny Hamlin.”

Harvick expanded on his thoughts, stating:

“I think right off the bat it’s these guys (insiders and journalists) who are going to ask them all the questions of ‘Can you win?’ and ultimately, that’s what it comes down to… He (Denny Hamlin) didn’t win the championship, and I don’t believe he will win a championship going forward.”

Ouch.

Harvick wasn’t done, though. He compared Hamlin’s situation to Kyle Busch’s downfall at Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR). Busch, a two-time Cup champion, saw his time at JGR unravel when his primary sponsor, M&M’s, left the sport in 2022. Unable to secure a replacement, Busch was forced to leave and join Richard Childress Racing (RCR). His transition hasn’t been smooth—he went winless in 2024, marking the first time in 19 years he failed to reach Victory Lane.

Could Hamlin be on the same path?

“I feel like it could be [Kyle Busch] 2.0 if it doesn’t start well,” Harvick warned.


Hamlin’s Biggest Hurdles: Sponsorship, a New Crew Chief, and Mounting Expectations

1️⃣ Sponsorship Shake-Up
For nearly two decades, FedEx has been synonymous with Hamlin’s No. 11 Toyota. But heading into 2025, that partnership is officially over. Joe Gibbs Racing has signed new deals with King’s Hawaiian and National Debt Relief, but losing such an iconic backer signals instability. It also raises concerns about how JGR views Hamlin’s long-term viability in the organization.

2️⃣ New Crew Chief, New Uncertainty
After six seasons working alongside Chris Gabehart, Hamlin will now have a new crew chief in Chris Gayle. Gabehart moves into a competition role within JGR, meaning Hamlin will still have his expertise but not in the same direct capacity. This transition could go either way—either it sparks a new dynamic that helps Hamlin finally break through, or it becomes a major adjustment that costs him valuable consistency.

3️⃣ The Clock is Ticking
Since 2005, Hamlin has raced for Joe Gibbs Racing, amassing over 50 Cup wins. Yet, he remains the biggest driver to never win a championship. If he couldn’t do it in his prime, with elite equipment and a well-established team, why should 2025 be any different? That’s exactly what Harvick believes—Hamlin has already peaked, and his championship window has closed.


Does Hamlin Have a Safety Net? Enter 23XI Racing

Unlike Kyle Busch, Hamlin has one major advantage—his co-ownership of 23XI Racing alongside Michael Jordan. If things go south at JGR, he has a built-in exit strategy. But would he really leave the team he’s spent his entire Cup career with?

If 2025 proves to be a disaster, Hamlin may face a career-defining choice:
🚗 Stay at JGR and accept a supporting role as the team focuses on younger talent like Christopher Bell and Chase Briscoe?
🏁 Move to 23XI full-time and attempt to win a championship as an owner-driver?


Can Denny Hamlin Defy the Doubt?

The pressure is at an all-time high for Hamlin. No more excuses, no more second chances—if he wants to silence his critics, he must deliver in 2025.

Harvick’s assessment is harsh but fair. The question remains:

❓ Is Denny Hamlin’s NASCAR career on the brink? Or can he defy the odds and finally claim his first championship?

Either way, all eyes will be on the No. 11 Toyota this season.

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