The 2024 MotoGP season is living up to its promise of an intense battle between Pecco Bagnaia, Jorge Martin, and Marc Marquez. This rivalry can be compared to the era of the ‘three greats’ of Alvaro Bautista, Toprak Razgatlioglu, and Jonathan Rea in the World Superbike, but with more evenly matched equipment. However, this current group of the three greats is already showing differences. Although there have been some exciting battles between Bagnaia and Martin, as well as the epic duel between Bagnaia and Marquez in Jerez, it is the mistakes and lost points that are defining this title race.
Martin’s crash in Jerez, while leading the race, solidified the fact that this championship is determined by errors. He had a significant points advantage over Bagnaia and Marquez before the Spanish Grand Prix, but his crash wiped out that lead. Martin described it as a “weird accident” and acknowledged it as a mistake. There doesn’t seem to be any mechanical or tire issues involved. This incident cost him valuable points, possibly around 20 or 16.
On the other hand, Martin was in the lead only because Bagnaia made a mistake at the end of the second lap, compromising his chances of pulling away. Both Martin and Bagnaia’s positions in the championship were comfortable due to the points they gained from their rivals’ mistakes. Bagnaia and Marquez collided in the Portuguese Grand Prix, and Bagnaia had already missed out on a certain victory due to his own mistake. Marquez also had issues with his brakes at COTA. The three riders have left points on the table throughout the season.
Despite Martin’s fall and the opportunity to make up for his non-points, Bagnaia and Marquez still fiercely competed against each other for the win in the Spanish GP. They even had heavy contact when Bagnaia counterattacked Marquez. They were willing to risk falling for a difference of just five points. However, it seems unlikely that this small points swing will determine the championship outcome.
Last year, the title race was decided by factors such as Martin’s fall in Indonesia, disagreements over tire choices in Qatar, and Bagnaia’s fall in Barcelona. Currently, Enea Bastianini is in third place, just five points behind Bagnaia, despite not having the same level of performance as the top contenders. Bastianini has consistently finished races and stayed in the championship conversation, even without showing the same winning potential as Martin, Marquez, and Bagnaia.
Although Bastianini may not have the competitiveness to challenge his Ducati teammates throughout the season, the rider who can consistently score points like him may have the best chance of winning the championship.
