Fernando Alonso, a veteran in the world of Formula 1, has subtly put Aston Martin on alert with his early projections for the 2025 season. His remarks come after Aston Martin’s lacklustre performance in the Bahrain pre-season test, where the team failed to make a massive impression amidst the tightly packed midfield competitors. Their performance has been largely overshadowed by Alpine and Williams, two teams that have evidently set the standard for the middle of the pack.
Formula 1’s competitive landscape has evolved dramatically over the past year. Alonso, reflecting on this shift, noted that whereas 19 drivers had already counted themselves out of the championship race a year ago, the current season seems far more open at the front. However, the dynamics have also shifted further down the grid, with certain teams’ development paths in 2024 having significant implications in the off-season.
“It’s hard to envision a dramatic shift from the Abu Dhabi race,” Alonso commented, subtly indicating a gloomy outlook for Aston Martin. His comments hint at a prediction that the first four races of the season may mirror the results seen in Abu Dhabi.
Aston Martin has faced a gradual decline over the past couple of seasons, having started strongly but then losing momentum. In fact, despite finishing fifth overall in 2024, their performance towards the end of the season suggested they possessed only the eighth or ninth best car. This downward trajectory has led Alonso to caution against high expectations from the team at the start of this season.
Currently, Aston Martin’s goals are modest: to build a better, more reliable car that performs well under development and reestablishes the team as front-runners in the midfield. The team’s new AMR25 initially showed promise during testing, suggesting a successful effort to make the car more driver-friendly and predictable. However, as the week progressed, the car began to show signs of rear instability, a potential issue when pushed to its limits.
Aston Martin’s struggles were not a concern for Alonso, who attributed the difficulties to challenging conditions in Bahrain that affected many cars. He expressed nonchalance over a low lap count, which was only surpassed by Red Bull’s.
“The ’24 car is essentially the same, with only the exterior and aerodynamics having undergone significant changes for performance,” said Alonso. “Components like the engines, radiators, driveshafts, and suspension remain unchanged, so we don’t require as many testing laps as we will next year when reliability testing becomes crucial.”
Alonso’s comments subtly contradict Aston Martin’s claim of a significant overhaul of their car, positioning his expectations as modest. He acknowledged some positive aspects of the car and noted a step forward compared to the previous year’s model.
But has the car really made as much progress as hoped? “We are relatively content,” Alonso conceded, “knowing that the midfield is extremely competitive and only flawless weekends will earn us points.”
Alonso is aware that the Aston Martin team has to work hard to gain points, particularly in the initial races. However, he believes that the rankings are not set in stone and expects them to fluctuate with each upgrade package.
For Alonso’s predictions to go in his favour, Aston Martin needs to reverse its narrative – start the season a bit behind and then gradually improve. The effectiveness of the team’s development efforts this year, without compromising on the significant rule changes due in 2026, will be crucial to their success. The team cannot afford to repeat last year’s disappointing upgrade success rate, especially if it cannot secure a points buffer against its midfield rivals in the early races.
