Carlos Sainz cut a reflective and urgent figure after a tough Singapore Grand Prix, acknowledging that the final six races of the 2024 season may represent his last shot at Formula 1 glory. As the Spaniard prepares to depart Ferrari, history and circumstance suggest his chances of further success are diminishing rapidly.
With Sainz set to leave the prancing horse for a seat at Williams in 2025, many are questioning whether the 30-year-old will ever have a realistic chance of winning races again. Despite being younger than some of his contemporaries, Sainz now faces the harsh reality that life after Ferrari is often a steep decline.
Reflecting on his final stint with Ferrari, Sainz said:
“I’m going to keep myself optimistic. Six races left in this long year. I’m going to work on my weaknesses and put myself in a better position for these last six races.”
The urgency behind those words is clear. Sainz’s future prospects seem bleak when considering the fates of previous Ferrari drivers who exited the team. Since the start of the Schumacher era, seven Ferrari alumni—Eddie Irvine, Rubens Barrichello, Michael Schumacher, Felipe Massa, Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen, and Sebastian Vettel—have started 554 post-Ferrari races combined. In those races, they claimed just two wins, both from Barrichello’s unexpected 2009 triumphs with Brawn GP. Even Raikkonen, who returned to Ferrari after a stint at Lotus, couldn’t shake the trend of diminishing returns.
Many of these former Ferrari stars left the team with hopes of continuing their competitiveness, but found themselves plummeting down the grid instead. Irvine’s post-Ferrari tenure with Jaguar was plagued by corporate interference. Barrichello floundered at Honda, and Alonso’s McLaren-Honda disaster years drained his once untouchable reputation. Even the great Michael Schumacher’s Mercedes return never reached the heights of his Ferrari glory days.
As for Sainz, his upcoming switch to Williams, a team that has languished at the back of the grid for much of the past decade, doesn’t inspire much confidence. While the historic team has shown signs of resurgence, they remain far from competing for race wins, let alone championships. And with Mercedes betting on rising star Kimi Antonelli, and Red Bull unlikely to entertain a reunion with Verstappen’s former teammate, Sainz’s career could face an uphill battle to remain in contention for podiums, let alone victories.
If history is any guide, leaving Ferrari marks the end of winning ways for most drivers. Massa and Raikkonen, after parting ways with Ferrari, had moments of resurgence—Massa with podiums at Williams and Raikkonen’s respectable run with Alfa Romeo—but neither came close to their former success.
For Sainz, the clock is ticking. The next six races could be his final opportunity to add to his tally of three grand prix wins. While he’s undoubtedly a driver with more to give, the cold reality of Formula 1 is that seats at the top teams are limited, and Williams, despite its proud history, is far from a frontrunner.
Will Sainz be the outlier who defies post-Ferrari decline, or will he, too, join the long list of talented drivers whose best days ended the moment they left Maranello? The answer will likely come in these final few races of 2024.
