Every NASCAR season brings fresh opportunities, but for rookies making the jump to the Cup Series, the road ahead is steep and unforgiving. Next-Gen cars demand a different skill set, the competition is fierce, and expectations can be overwhelming.
Yet, Denny Hamlin sees something special in Riley Herbst—so much so that he’s bringing him into 23XI Racing, a team that has steadily grown into a championship contender. While Herbst isn’t expected to immediately challenge for wins, Hamlin believes the Xfinity Series talent has the potential to outperform expectations and eventually become a key player for the organization.
“Riley Herbst coming in, we’re bringing in his Xfinity crew chief. They got great chemistry together,” Hamlin said on the Actions Detrimental podcast.
“I really feel confident that Riley will outperform expectations this year. I think he’s very hungry, I think he’s very focused, and very underrated in the talent side of things.”
Herbst’s arrival means 23XI Racing now has three drivers—Bubba Wallace, Tyler Reddick, and Herbst—all with different career trajectories. Wallace is still seeking consistency, Reddick is coming off a championship-contending season, and Herbst is looking to prove he belongs at NASCAR’s highest level.
Managing Expectations: Can Herbst Succeed Where Wallace Has Struggled?
Hamlin has made it clear—he’s not expecting Herbst to make the playoffs immediately. While Reddick and Wallace are expected to compete for postseason spots, Herbst’s first priority is getting comfortable in the Cup Series and improving each week.
“My expectations of Tyler, of Bubba, they’ve changed year after year because I expect them to keep getting better. The minute you see a plateau, then it’s, ‘Alright, how far can they really take this, take us?’”
In other words, this is a long-term investment. Herbst’s rookie season will be about growth, but if he improves steadily, he could become a serious contender down the line.
Herbst’s Xfinity Success: Can He Translate It to Cup?
Herbst had one of his best Xfinity seasons in 2024, winning at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and again in the championship race at Phoenix. He also recorded four top-5 finishes, proving he can perform under pressure.
But stepping up to Cup Series competition is an entirely different challenge. The field is tougher, the cars are more complex, and the learning curve is steep. That’s why Hamlin is keeping expectations realistic—Herbst needs to gain experience before he can be a true contender.
“For now, Hamlin isn’t setting the bar at the playoffs for Herbst, but he believes in a steady progression.”
Is Bubba Wallace’s Seat in Jeopardy?
Wallace has flashed brilliance, but consistency has always been his Achilles’ heel.
- 2023: Wallace barely made the playoffs, getting in on points.
- 2024: He went winless across 36 races, raising doubts about his long-term status.
- Meanwhile, Reddick: Won the regular season championship and led 23XI Racing to its first-ever Championship 4 appearance.
With Herbst now in the picture, could we see internal competition within 23XI Racing?
“Herbst’s inclusion might give rise to healthy competition, to take the team to new heights in 2025.”
Wallace needs to prove he can deliver—otherwise, Herbst could emerge as a serious challenger for the No. 23 seat in the future.
The Verdict: Will Hamlin’s Gamble on Herbst Pay Off?
Denny Hamlin isn’t betting on immediate results, but he sees potential in Herbst.
- ✅ Short-term goal: Learn, improve, and run inside the top 20 consistently.
- ✅ Long-term goal: Become a playoff-caliber driver and push 23XI Racing forward.
With Bubba Wallace’s inconsistency, could Herbst be the surprise star 23XI needs?
Hamlin thinks so—but the real answer will be decided on the track.