In the twilight of the 2024 Formula 1 season, a debate sparked when Max Verstappen’s championship lead made it unattainable for Lando Norris. The question at the heart of the discussion is this: Does Norris need a car advantage throughout the season to eclipse Verstappen?
Norris often speaks highly of Verstappen, labeling him as “the world’s best driver.” It’s a justifiable sentiment considering Verstappen’s impressive track record. He has been in F1 for four more seasons than Norris, partaken in nearly double the number of Grand Prix (210 against 129), claimed twelve times more victories (63 versus 5), and has four additional world championships under his belt.
However, these statistics are merely the tip of the iceberg. More crucial is the psychological edge Verstappen gains from such accomplishments. Although Norris unquestionably believes in his ability to triumph, there’s a profound difference between believing and knowing – Verstappen knows.
The opening race of 2025 suggests that our hypothesis from last season could be put to the test. McLaren kicked off this season with an apparent advantage in car performance, specifically in terms of tire usage, which translated into several tenths of a second advantage in dry conditions at Albert Park.
Despite the McLaren’s superiority on a drying track, Verstappen’s Red Bull was a threat during the wet phases of the grand prix. Verstappen’s second-place finish, within a hair’s breadth of victory, was unexpected. Norris, who had an off at Turn 12, was lucky to avoid the fate of his teammate. Despite these odds, Norris emerged as the deserving winner of the first race weekend in 2025.
Still, it’s challenging to shake off the impression that Verstappen outperformed him. Verstappen quickly closed the gap on the McLarens, which had a tire advantage with the C5 Pirellis in Melbourne. He consistently kept them under pressure. Even when Norris decided to pit for intermediate tires after both McLarens skidded off the track, Verstappen maintained his composure, deciding to stick with the slicks a tad longer. Although his gamble didn’t pay off this time, a slight shift would have seen us discussing a surprise Verstappen victory.
Verstappen’s unyielding presence is a testament to his unwavering confidence. Despite McLaren’s clear advantage, Verstappen lurks in the shadows, waiting patiently for an opportunity to strike. This inner confidence isn’t as visible in Norris. While Norris performed splendidly, there were instances where he didn’t seem like the top McLaren driver, let alone the best performer on the track.
F1 history has seen drivers either surpass their competitors or engage in fierce battles to be recognized as the best of their era. Prost, Senna, Schumacher, Alonso, Hamilton, and Vettel have all held this title at different times. Verstappen is the current torchbearer, and his self-belief, bolstered by his 2021 battle with Hamilton, makes him a formidable contender.
Norris, on the other hand, is yet to prove himself capable of winning races in cars that aren’t up to the mark. Verstappen, like Schumacher, Alonso, and Hamilton, has demonstrated this ability.
In the recently concluded race, Verstappen narrowly missed victory. Red Bull believes that Norris was tense towards the end of the race, which is perhaps why he briefly went off at Turn 6. Norris managed to keep his cool, but he came dangerously close to buckling under the pressure. This suggests that Norris is still grappling with the reality of being the favorite and the one everyone expects to win.
While Norris continues to improve, Verstappen remains a daunting adversary. If Red Bull can fine-tune the RB21, Verstappen will become an even bigger challenge.
Red Bull’s pre-season was riddled with confused front wing and floor experiments and lost track time. Although the RB21 seemed much calmer than its predecessor according to team boss Christian Horner, Verstappen’s third-place effort compared to Norris’ pole lap highlights a possible lack of front-end response.
The development of the new Red Bull car into a super-responsive vehicle that Verstappen can thrive with is crucial to eroding McLaren’s advantage seen in Australia. If the RB21 can achieve better balance and improved tire temperature management, Verstappen’s ability to exploit the car’s potential will likely reduce McLaren’s advantage.
McLaren, aware of the looming threat, made a bold move with its 2025 car to fend off Ferrari, Red Bull, and Mercedes. Norris is banking on this strategy because all things being equal, Verstappen is still the favorite to win the world championship.