Rewind to November 2019 at the Homestead-Miami Speedway. The crowd was on edge as Kyle Busch faced a 21-race winless streak. With his last victory being the Pocono 400 in June, many had written him off as a contender. The stakes were high, but against all odds, Busch emerged triumphant, securing his second Cup Series Championship. Now as we return to this historical track, we can’t help but wonder if history will repeat itself.
Busch approaches the sixth race of the current season with a daunting 62-race drought since his last win in Illinois in 2023. Much like his situation in 2019, many are skeptical of his chances. But could the Homestead-Miami Speedway be the turning point Busch has been seeking for the past 62 races? Will he defy the odds once again?
Despite the allure of this narrative, the odds are stacked against Busch. BETMGM places him at a distant +1800 to win the race, far behind favorites like Kyle Larson at +400 and 2024 Homestead playoff race victor Tyler Reddick at +550. With only two victories in his 20 races at this track, including his championship race in 2019, and an average finishing position of 16th, the track record is not in favor of the two-time champion.
However, a closer look at his performance reveals an interesting factor. The introduction of the Next-Gen car in 2022 has been a hurdle for many seasoned drivers. Jimmie Johnson scored his first and only top-20 finish after over 10 starts with the Next-Gen car at the 2025 Daytona 500. Likewise, Busch’s performance took a hit following the introduction of the Next-Gen car and his switch to Richard Childress Racing in 2023.
It’s worth noting that prior to 2020, Homestead was only in the spotlight for the Championship race, which then moved to Phoenix. Homestead now holds one race a season, and over the last three years, that race was part of the playoffs. Now, the Homestead race arrives early in the season. But is it the right moment for Busch?
From 2015 to 2021, Busch boasted seven consecutive top-10 finishes at Homestead Miami Speedway, including two wins. In 2022, his final season at Joe Gibbs Racing and the debut year of the Gen 7 car, Busch finished 9th, extending his streak to eight. However, since his move to RCR, his performance has waned, with results being 18th in 2023 and 31st in 2024.
Yet, there’s a glimmer of hope. Busch has shown signs of his former prowess this year. He nearly ended his winless streak at COTA, leading 42 laps before being overtaken by Christopher Bell with just six laps remaining.
The pressure is mounting with each race, but if anyone can rise to the occasion, it’s Kyle Busch. He has led more laps at Homestead-Miami Speedway than any other driver in the last 10 races, with 435 laps to his credit. He also has only two DNFs in 20 races at this track.
However, Busch’s struggles with the Next-Gen car are well documented. Ahead of the 2025 Daytona 500, he admitted his difficulties with the car, describing it as a “different beast.” Despite a winless 2024, 2025 has shown promise. After a third consecutive top-10 finish in Phoenix, Busch commended his RCR team for their improvement. Yet, his return to his hometown of Las Vegas compounded his woes.
Busch had to contend with pit-road penalties and a loose tire, which resulted in him being multiple laps down and out of contention. Since his move to Richard Childress Racing in 2023, Busch has only one top-10 finish at Las Vegas.
Clearly, Busch and the RCR team have a daunting task ahead if they aim to break the winless streak at Homestead. His record may be shaky, but his team has shown signs of improvement. Can Busch triumph in the face of adversity this weekend? Only time will tell.
