Audi’s success in motorsport is undeniable, as evidenced by its achievements in sportscars, tin-tops, and rallying. However, the fact that it couldn’t convince Carlos Sainz to join its Formula 1 project is a strong indication of its uncertain future in grand prix racing.
The issue goes beyond Audi’s failure to sell Sainz on the team. Naturally, Sainz’s main concern was securing a spot in a top-tier team after being unexpectedly replaced at Ferrari by Lewis Hamilton.
“I am very excited to announce that I will be joining Williams Racing next season! I am thrilled about the project and the challenges that lie ahead of us!” Sainz announced.
Had Audi lost Sainz to Red Bull or Mercedes, they could have accepted it, as those options would have provided immediate results. But the fact that he chose Williams over Audi raised alarm bells in Ingolstadt and Hinwil, prompting a management overhaul and the hiring of former Ferrari team principal Mattia Binotto.
This change in leadership might have influenced Sainz’s decision if it had come earlier, both in terms of the impending Williams deadline and the time it will take for Binotto to establish himself and potentially convince Sainz that Audi is on the right track. The fact that Audi’s outgoing F1 leader Andreas Seidl, who previously worked with Sainz, couldn’t sway the Ferrari driver speaks volumes about the work that needs to be done.
Both Sauber and Williams are working hard to recover from financial difficulties they have faced for a long time. Both teams have new owners who are investing significant funds. Both teams have realistic ambitions of becoming frontrunners in the future, although by that time Sainz will be in his mid-30s at best. Both teams have a rich racing heritage. On paper, Audi has significant advantages.
Audi has its own engine program, past and future leaders whom Sainz is familiar with from his time at McLaren and Ferrari, and the backing of one of the world’s largest car manufacturers. This should not only give Audi the upper hand but also tilt the field in their favor. However, Williams managed to convince Sainz to reject Audi.
Sainz’s main focus is to have the most competitive package possible in 2025 and beyond. He has remained positive in public, stating earlier this year that “all the options I have on the table are good options.” This is understandable, considering his recent success at a top team and the circumstances that have prevented him from joining one of the leading F1 operations.
While Williams is not currently performing at its best, team principal James Vowles has implemented a clear plan that is yielding results. The team has a larger staff than Sauber and owner Dorilton Capital is determined to transform the team into a frontrunner, even if progress may be gradual in terms of on-track results.
The problem lies in the fact that all the arguments in favor of choosing Sauber/Audi are hypothetical, while the results clearly favor Williams. Sauber is currently the slowest team on average and has not scored any points in 2024. Their performance is declining, and the Sauber C44 lacks downforce, confidence, responsiveness, and stability.
To even reach Q2, Valtteri Bottas, a talented driver, and the team must execute a flawless job. In terms of race pace, it is weaker than their single-lap speed. Sauber has faced various issues, some well-known such as pitstop problems, and others less publicized.
Sauber’s average deficit to the front is just under two percent this season, suggesting that climbing up the order would not require a significant improvement. However, Sauber’s slow development rate and struggles with achieving a car that performs well across a wide range of corner-speed profiles indicate that something is amiss.
The team is undergoing a transition, with ongoing investments in facilities and a recruitment drive to expand the workforce, currently standing at 600. Despite having experienced personnel and decent facilities, Sauber lacks the necessary sharpness. This played a role in Seidl’s departure.
It’s easy to be unimpressed from an outsider’s perspective and overlook the unseen aspects of the story. Judging McLaren based on its position at the start of 2023 would have raised doubts, but the team has since made significant progress. Sainz has been given a compelling pitch, yet even after examining Audi’s F1 roadmap, he remains unconvinced.
The same cannot be said for Williams. While they have a long way to go, Vowles has been making a convincing case for months. He also understands the importance of not giving Audi’s new regime enough time to persuade their top target to stay, hence the decision to avoid any further delays.
Williams may not have a championship-winning car, having only scored four points this season, but their direction is more convincing. At the very least, Sainz believes that Williams will offer him a better chance of achieving results in the next few years.
Of course, Sainz could be wrong. He may have turned his back on the opportunity to be part of a championship-winning Audi team in a few years. However, Sainz is not known for making hasty or unfounded judgments. He is well aware of the benefits of joining a works team, yet he remains unconvinced and doubtful enough to stake his career on a Williams team that cannot be expected to provide him with immediate winning machinery.
Reputation can only take you so far, and Sainz’s verdict is a severe blow to Audi. The fact that Sainz was in a driver market dilemma for so long and ultimately chose to distance himself from Audi suggests that the manufacturer may have overestimated its capabilities in taking on F1.
Perhaps Audi has come to this realization, but it highlights the immense task that Binotto will face when he assumes his role on August 1.
