If it weren’t for a technical issue with Oscar Piastri’s car during qualifying, McLaren could have secured the front row of the grid for the sprint of the Chinese Grand Prix. However, Piastri’s car had a moment of confusion in slippery conditions, causing him to start seven positions behind his teammate Lando Norris, who clinched pole position. Norris’ lap time was over a second faster than Lewis Hamilton in the Mercedes and over two seconds faster than Max Verstappen from Red Bull, who will start in fourth. Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin separates Hamilton and Verstappen on the grid.
The unpredictable SQ3 session, affected by rain and slippery track, made tire temperatures crucial. McLaren excelled in this aspect, unlike Red Bull, whose tires failed to heat up properly. Verstappen described it as driving on ice. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz and Charles Leclerc also struggled with lack of grip.
In terms of performance, McLaren’s position is uncertain. In dry practice sessions, Piastri was second fastest, but his time was 0.3 seconds slower than Lance Stroll. This suggests that standout times may not accurately reflect the true performance of the cars. In SQ2, with initially dry conditions, Piastri and Norris finished fourth and fifth, respectively, with Piastri about a quarter of a second slower than Verstappen and Leclerc. This seems to be a more representative indicator of their performance in dry conditions.
If the Sprint race is wet, McLaren’s advantage becomes more evident. This is due to the team’s wing choice and the track surface coating, which improves the wing’s effectiveness. McLaren and Sauber, both with more rear wing than Red Bull or Ferrari, advanced to Q3. However, McLaren’s DRS performance is inferior compared to its competitors. Although competitive on the straights without DRS, it loses significantly when the function is enabled.
The weather forecast and McLaren’s DRS deficit influenced the team’s compromise between straight-line speed and downforce. The team prioritizes downforce, which is more beneficial in wet conditions. The new track coating, applied in 2023, significantly reduced grip, especially in wet conditions. This benefits cars with higher levels of downforce, like McLaren. The coating is already worn out on the racing line, so McLaren’s advantage may not be as significant in the wet sprint.
In dry conditions, McLaren loses its lap time advantage and becomes vulnerable to being overtaken at turn 14. During practice, Norris seemed to be the fastest, but this is misleading as he was on the hard tire compound, while the faster Red Bulls and Ferraris were on mediums and softs, respectively.
Behind the apparent chaotic order of the grid, there is a sense of normality and strategy at play.
