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SVG’s NASCAR Future in Question: Kyle Petty’s Insight on the Kiwi’s Faltering 2025 Season

Carl Harrison by Carl Harrison
March 5, 2025
in Motorsports
Reading Time: 3 mins read
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SVG’s NASCAR Future in Question: Kyle Petty’s Insight on the Kiwi’s Faltering 2025 Season

Driver Kyle Petty, left, checks the speed of other drivers while talking with his father, driver Richard Petty, during qualifying trials for the Nashville Pepsi 420 NASCAR Grand National race at Nashville International Raceway on July 13, 1984. Kyle will start in the 15th spot in the race, while his father will start 3rd.

The 2025 NASCAR season arrived with a flood of anticipation surrounding New Zealand’s Shane van Gisbergen. After a promising start with an impressive victory at the Chicago Street Race and a solid performance as an Xfinity Rookie, the Kiwi driver seemed poised for a stellar season. However, the reality has proven to be somewhat less spectacular thus far, particularly following the recent race at COTA, where it was Christopher Bell who emerged victorious against all odds.

Van Gisbergen’s golden touch appears to be waning. His 2025 campaign kicked off on an underwhelming note with a P33 finish at Daytona and a P23 result at Atlanta. It was hoped that COTA would provide the platform for him to truly unfurl his potential. While he did show some promise, he was unable to pose a real threat as Bell, Kyle Busch, and William Byron vied for the top spot. A P6 finish was all van Gisbergen could muster, signaling a missed opportunity on the road course.

Yet, not everyone is convinced that the Kiwi’s star is dwindling after just three race weekends. Alexis Perkins was one to voice this sentiment, stating, “SVG is an incredible talent… but these NASCAR Cup Series drivers are all very good at what they do.” While van Gisbergen is a seasoned road course ringer, he’s up against formidable competition including Chase Elliott, AJ Allmendinger, Michael McDowell, and Tyler Reddick. Two of these drivers secured top 5 positions in last Sunday’s race, highlighting the competitive landscape van Gisbergen must navigate.

Offering a more analytical perspective, Kyle Petty pinpointed how the modern racing paradigm has evolved. “We live in a time when data is an open book, see where he shifts where he breaks where he checks up,” he explained. This data revolution means that teams can scrutinize a driver’s technique— including shift points, braking patterns, corner entry speeds— effectively demystifying the talents of rising stars. The power of SMT data means that no secret is safe from rival teams, as van Gisbergen discovered at COTA.

However, van Gisbergen himself remains undaunted. He has refrained from setting specific goals for his inaugural Cup season, instead choosing to focus on steady improvement and adapting to NASCAR’s unique demands. He expressed his mindset saying, “I don’t go racing with goals… Just doing my best every week and just have the same approach every week. I know I can do the job. … It’s just time. I know I can get there. It’s just how long it’s going to take on the oval side.”

Nevertheless, not all are as hopeful about van Gisbergen’s prospects. NASCAR insider Jordan Bianchi outlined the challenges SVG will face at the Cup level and emphasized the importance of making the road course races count. He has just three more opportunities to secure a spot in the playoffs. Despite having fresh rubber and being in the third row with 13 laps to go at the late race restart, he fell behind. He faces an uphill battle on the oval tracks where the more established teams are expected to dominate.

Bianchi draws attention to SVG’s performance at Watkins Glen last year, “He was great, but he made a mistake. Buescher forced him into a mistake and he fumbled. That happens, but that just shows you how hard it is to win races. For these guys, they don’t have a 1 in 26 shot, they only have a 1 in 5 shot.”

However, van Gisbergen did achieve his best outing at COTA with a P6 finish. This is a marked improvement from his 27th place finish at the Xfinity race the previous year, despite leading the most laps. A track limit violation had marred his race outcome. But with tracks like Sonoma Raceway and Chicago Street Course still on the horizon, and having previously won at both these circuits, van Gisbergen may yet find his footing this season.

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