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Mercedes Braces for Another Rollercoaster Season in 2025 – Toto Wolff Warns Performance Swings Won’t Disappear

Carl Harrison by Carl Harrison
February 4, 2025
in Motorsports
Reading Time: 5 mins read
0
Toto Wolff calls out Red Bull’s ‘entitlement’ over 2021 F1 title battle

Oct 20, 2024; Austin, Texas, USA; Torger Christian Toto Wolff Team Principal and CEO of Mercedes AMG Petronas F1 walks through the track entrance before the 2024 Formula One US Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-Imagn Images

For Toto Wolff and Mercedes, the dream of returning to Formula 1 dominance in 2025 may be just that—a dream. Despite flashes of brilliance in 2024, including a stunning Las Vegas one-two, Wolff admits the team’s wild performance swings won’t be fixed overnight.

In fact, he doesn’t expect any team to crack the code of consistency under the current ground-effect regulations, setting the stage for yet another unpredictable F1 season.

Mercedes’ Hot-and-Cold Nightmare in 2024

The 2024 Formula 1 season was a historically competitive campaign, with four different teams—Red Bull, Ferrari, McLaren, and Mercedes—producing multiple race winners. But while each squad had its highs and lows, Mercedes was the poster child for inconsistency.

  • Early Season Struggles: Mercedes started as the fourth-fastest team, miles behind Red Bull and McLaren.
  • Mid-Season Resurgence: A stunning three wins in four races before the summer break suggested the Silver Arrows had cracked the code.
  • Post-Summer Slump: As temperatures rose, Mercedes fell apart, struggling to maintain its competitive edge.

The best example of this inconsistent pace? Las Vegas. A dominant one-two finish in cold conditions highlighted just how narrow Mercedes’ performance window really was.

Wolff doesn’t deny the issue but insists they aren’t alone.

“We won’t be able to get rid of these fluctuations completely. We will also see them next year with all the teams.”

The Key to 2025: Understanding the Pattern

For Wolff, 2025 is about maximizing strengths, not eliminating weaknesses entirely.

“The trick is to be on the good side as often as possible.”

“You start to correlate patterns—race tracks where your car is good, practice sessions where you pushed your car, tyre compounds with which the car harmonizes better, track temperatures that are good for the car.”

The 2024 season exposed Mercedes’ kryptonite—hot weather. While McLaren and Ferrari thrived in scorching conditions, Mercedes needed cool temperatures to shine.

Their struggles mirror a broader F1 trend under the ground-effect era, where teams are fighting unintended side effects while developing their cars.

Mercedes Isn’t Alone—F1’s Top Teams Are Fighting Inconsistency

While Mercedes fans may be frustrated by the team’s fluctuating pace, the reality is no one in the paddock has built a flawless car.

🏎 Red Bull: Won 7 of the first 10 races, then suffered a shocking 10-race winless streak after development tweaks unbalanced the RB20.

🏎 Ferrari: Two wins in the first eight races, but a self-inflicted summer disaster when an upgrade package introduced bouncing to the SF-24.

🏎 McLaren: Perhaps the strongest overall package, but even they took time to unlock their car’s full potential.

Wolff acknowledges this brutal reality:

“All four teams that won races [in 2024] have experienced these ups and downs.”

“Nobody has designed a car that was consistently good across all race tracks and all weather conditions.”

Each team had its own strengths and weaknesses:

  • McLaren: Dominant in maximum downforce & hot weather.
  • Ferrari: Similar to McLaren, excelling in high-grip, high-temp conditions.
  • Mercedes: Fast in cold conditions & fast corners but suffered in heat.
  • Red Bull: Unpredictable—sometimes the best car, sometimes nowhere.

Final Year of Ground-Effect Regs: Can Mercedes Make a Statement?

With the ground-effect era set to end after 2025, this is Mercedes’ last chance to solve their puzzle before a complete regulation overhaul in 2026.

Wolff remains cautiously optimistic, hoping Mercedes can adjust its development direction over the winter.

“I hope that we draw the right conclusions from this over the winter and adjust the development direction for the 2025 car.”

But if 2024 taught us anything, it’s this: The 2025 season will be another brutal dogfight—and Mercedes isn’t guaranteed to be on top.

With Red Bull looking to reassert dominance, Ferrari desperate for a title, and McLaren finally in the hunt, Mercedes can’t afford another year of “what could have been.”

Can George Russell and Lewis Hamilton take advantage of their car’s stronger moments and challenge for a championship in 2025? Or will Mercedes’ weaknesses once again cost them a shot at glory?

One thing is certain—2025 is shaping up to be another F1 thriller.

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