As Red Bull Racing faces mounting speculation over Sergio Perez’s future, the debate surrounding the Mexican driver’s value to the team has reached a fever pitch. Despite a challenging 2024 season that saw Red Bull lose its Constructors’ crown and Perez finish a distant 152 points behind teammate Max Verstappen, former F1 star Juan Pablo Montoya has questioned the wisdom of replacing him, citing financial, sporting, and strategic benefits.
The Case for Perez: “Where Is the Downside?”
Speaking to Vision4Sport, Montoya highlighted Perez’s unique contributions to Red Bull, arguing that his continued presence may offer unexpected advantages, even amid a lackluster season.
“By finishing third [in the Constructors’ Championship], they’re going to get more wind tunnel time and resources for the ’26 car,” Montoya explained, referencing F1’s sliding scale, which allocates more aerodynamic testing time to lower-ranking teams. “So, is it that bad having Checo there? They have the World Champion and more wind tunnel time!”
Montoya also pointed to the financial upside Perez brings to Red Bull. From merchandise sales to increased market presence in Mexico and Latin America, Perez’s commercial appeal remains significant. “What they’re losing by not winning the Constructors’, they’re probably making up with Checo’s merchandise and Red Bull sales and the money he’s bringing. So where is the downside?” Montoya asked.
Perez’s 2024 Struggles: A Tale of Decline
Perez’s 2024 campaign was a stark contrast to Verstappen’s dominance. While Verstappen clinched his fourth consecutive Drivers’ Championship with 437 points, Perez managed just four podiums and struggled for consistency. By season’s end, Red Bull had dropped to third in the Constructors’ standings, trailing McLaren and Ferrari.
Red Bull’s decision to retain Perez for the second half of the season surprised many, especially as rumours swirled about his potential exit. The delay in announcing the team’s 2025 lineup has only fueled speculation, with insiders suggesting that a financial stand-off could cost Red Bull as much as $78 million if they part ways with Perez early, as reported by former Bridgestone engineer Kees van de Grint.
Who Replaces Perez? The Likely Candidates
Red Bull’s search for Perez’s replacement has reportedly narrowed to its junior talent pool, with Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson emerging as frontrunners. Tsunoda tested Red Bull machinery during the Abu Dhabi post-season test, though Lawson, who impressed during his substitute appearances for AlphaTauri in 2023, is seen as the favorite to step up.
However, Montoya believes Red Bull is unlikely to disrupt team harmony by signing a high-profile driver such as Carlos Sainz, now confirmed at Williams for 2025. “Red Bull wouldn’t bring in a Carlos Sainz type because the sparks are going to fly, and I’m not sure they’ll want that,” Montoya said, referring to the potential tension a competitive teammate might bring alongside Verstappen.
The Bigger Picture: Red Bull’s Strategic Dilemma
While Perez’s performance has been underwhelming, Montoya argued that Red Bull’s single-driver focus on Verstappen reduces the urgency for a seismic lineup change. “You have a team dedicated to one driver,” Montoya noted, suggesting that Perez’s role as a clear No. 2 might still align with Red Bull’s long-term goals.
Despite these arguments, the situation reflects a broader challenge for Red Bull. With McLaren and Ferrari closing the gap in 2024, and even outpacing Red Bull in some races, the team’s dominance is no longer guaranteed. Balancing driver consistency with team harmony and performance will be critical as Red Bull looks to reclaim its standing in 2025.
What’s Next for Perez and Red Bull?
Red Bull held high-level meetings following the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, with senior advisor Helmut Marko hinting that both Red Bull and Racing Bulls (formerly AlphaTauri) driver lineups are under review. “When will it be announced? I don’t think it will be Monday,” Marko teased, emphasizing that post-season test results could influence the decision.
For Perez, the coming weeks will determine his fate. While Montoya and others have made compelling cases for his continued presence, Red Bull’s desire to evolve its lineup could see him exit, opening the door for a rising star like Lawson.
Whatever the outcome, Red Bull’s decision will shape not only its 2025 campaign but also its long-term strategy as F1 enters a new era of heightened competition. For Perez, the question remains: has he done enough to stay, or will Red Bull roll the dice on a fresh start? The answer could mark a turning point for both driver and team.