Denny Hamlin finds himself in a precarious position as the NASCAR playoffs head into their final stretch. Following Joey Logano’s strategic victory at Las Vegas, Hamlin now faces a steep challenge in making the Championship 4, with a 27-point deficit to the cutline and several dominant drivers ahead of him. Despite the pressure, the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran insists he isn’t in a “must-win” situation just yet—though the margin for error is slim.
In a recent discussion about his playoff hopes, Hamlin explained the outlook for the seven remaining Round of 8 drivers. While some competitors, like Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, face a clear must-win scenario to stay in contention, Hamlin believes that his path to the final four will require nothing less than top-three finishes in both the remaining races and stages.
“There’s a distinct cut-line now. We’re on the other side of it… If you want to talk about must-win, it’s probably going to be Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney,” Hamlin explained. “But if you’re going to talk about must-run top three in every stage and the race for the next two weeks, it’s me and [Tyler] Reddick.”
Hamlin acknowledged that he and Reddick must deliver near-perfect performances at Martinsville and Homestead-Miami to catch the current playoff frontrunners—William Byron, Kyle Larson, and Christopher Bell. Those three drivers have been in commanding form throughout the playoffs, making it difficult for anyone outside the cutline to make up significant ground without a mistake or misfortune befalling one of them.
“If you don’t run in the top three every stage—that’s four stages—and the race, there’s no way we make up that kind of ground on [William] Byron, [Kyle] Larson, or [Christopher] Bell,” Hamlin emphasized. “That’s assuming one of them doesn’t have a bad finish.”
Hamlin’s situation is further complicated by Joey Logano’s surprise win at Las Vegas, which shifted the playoff dynamic. Logano, who has a knack for capitalizing on fuel strategy and late cautions, secured his win by taking advantage of a perfectly timed caution and his fuel-saving abilities—much like his victory earlier in the season at Nashville.
“That caution fell at just the right time for that team,” Hamlin said. “The timing worked out perfect, and they made it happen.”
As the playoffs wind down, Hamlin is hoping to pull off a similar stroke of luck or strategic brilliance to punch his ticket to the Championship 4. While he faces an uphill battle, Hamlin remains focused and determined, knowing that the margin for error has never been smaller.
The next two races at Martinsville and Homestead-Miami will decide whether Hamlin can turn things around and secure his place in the final showdown. With the pressure mounting, all eyes are on the No. 11 team to see if they can deliver when it matters most.
