Thierry Neuville is on the brink of his first-ever World Rally Championship (WRC) title, and the penultimate round of the season, the Central European Rally (CER), could be where it all unfolds. As the current championship leader, Neuville holds a 29-point lead over his closest rival, Hyundai team-mate Ott Tänak, with only 30 points available in the final round in Japan. This weekend could be pivotal if Neuville manages to build an insurmountable lead.
Neuville’s title ambitions are under threat from Tänak, as well as Toyota’s Sébastien Ogier and Elfyn Evans, who are still mathematically in contention, trailing by 41 and 46 points, respectively. To secure the title at CER, Neuville needs to outscore Tänak by at least two points and take no less than 10 points fewer than Ogier and 15 fewer than Evans across the weekend.
Key Scenarios for Neuville to Win the Title at CER:
- Best-case scenario: Neuville leads after Saturday and collects at least 11 out of 12 points from Sunday’s Super Sunday stages and the powerstage. This would guarantee him the title, regardless of Tänak’s performance.
- If Tänak is second: Tänak needs to outscore Neuville by at least two points on Sunday to keep the championship alive.
- Title could be clinched Saturday night: If Tänak finishes seventh or lower on Saturday, Neuville could effectively settle the championship early, though he would still need to complete Sunday’s stages to secure the title officially.
- Trouble for Tänak: If Tänak hits trouble on Saturday but maximizes points on Sunday, Neuville needs a total of 14 points across the weekend to seal the championship. If Ogier manages a maximum 30 points, Neuville would need at least 20 points to remain out of reach.
With numerous permutations, Neuville’s championship hopes hinge on both his performance and the results of his rivals. Should he secure victory at CER, it would mark a monumental moment in his career and Hyundai’s WRC campaign.
