Both women come into this one following a win in their last fight.
The UFC is set for another fight card at the Apex in Las Vegas and we’re ready to bring you our predictions and picks for all 13 scheduled bouts. This next fight continues on the Prelims as Lithuania’s Julija Stoliarenko will take on Brazil’s Luana Carolina in the Women’s Flyweight (125) Division. Check out our UFC odds series for our Carolina-Stoliarenko prediction and pick.
Luana Carolina (9-4) has gone 4-3 in her UFC career since 2019. After breaking through on Dana White’s Contender Series, she got off to a fast start with several decision wins. She’s gone 1-2 in her last three fights, but her most recent bout was a unanimous-decision win over Ivana Petrovic. Look for her to continue her momentum here. Carolina stands 5’6″ with a 69-inch reach.
Julija Stoliarenko (11-7-1) has gone 2-5 in her UFC fights since joining in 2018. After losing the first three fights of her second stint in the promotion, she’s been able to turn it around and has gone 2-1 in her last three with wins over Jessica Rose-Clark and most recently Molly McCann. She’ll hope to continue her hot streak through the division. Stoliarenko stands 5’7″ with a 66-inch reach.
Here are the UFC Odds, courtesy of Draft Kings.
Luana Carolina: +124
Julija Stoliarenko: -148
Over 2.5 rounds: -125
Under 2.5 rounds: -105
Luana Carolina has yet to find a finish in the UFC as all but two of her seven total bouts have gone to decision. She was finished in both of those instances and it’s clear what kind of game plan she fights with against most of her opponents. She’s not typically a huge power puncher and if she’s able to hurt her opponent, she usually initiates the grappling and searches for a finish there. Her jiu-jitsu is sharp, but she can sometimes catch herself in compromising positions, so she’ll need to be careful against a dangerous grappler like Stoliarenko.
Luana Carolina will have a solid striking advantage in this fight as she lands double as many significant strikes per minute than her opponent. She also absorbs fewer strikes per minute, so she’ll have a clear advantage in standing and striking with Stoliarenko. She also has a slight reach advantage and faster hands, so she should look to keep this at a comfortable striking range. Stoliarenko is almost certain to chase the takedown, but Luana Carolina boasts a solid 76% defense rate and will be hard to bring down. If she can pick-and-pop her way through three rounds on the feet, she should get this win.
Julija Stoliarenko is an experienced black belt judoka and has 10 of her 11 career wins by way of submission. She’s a menace on the ground and kind find submissions from a number of places, but does her best work when she’s in top position. She has very tight pressure from the top and doesn’t waste many movements in chasing the submission. She also does a great job of using her opponents’ movements against them and she’ll have the noticeable advantage if this fight hits the mat. After having a tough stretch just a few years back, she’s been on very dangerous over her last three fights and has two wins by armbar to show for it – look for her to chase it aggressively in this one.
Stoliarenko’s striking game hasn’t caught up to her grappling just yet and she could find herself in trouble if she’s unable to land her takedowns with success. She may struggle to close the distance against a volume puncher like Caroline, so she could benefit from tying her up against the fence and seeking offense from there. In the clinch, she can also work her Judo takedowns and land in top position where she can control the fight from.
Both women are coming into this fight off of wins and their confidence should be high as they meet against each other in the octagon. Julija Stoliarenko has been a bit more dominant with her wins and her last victory over Molly McCann showed that she’s levels above the competition on the ground. Luana Carolina has a clear path to winning this fight if she can manage the distance and strike with Stoliarenko for three rounds.
For our prediction, we’ll give the edge to Julija Stoliarenko here. Luana Carolina has a solid takedown defense rate, but Stoliarenko will almost certainly go for the takedown given the grappling discrepancy. Her aggressiveness should be the difference as she ultimately lands a few and control this fight from the ground. Let’s side with Stoliarenko to get the win for our prediction.
