We have reached the midway point of the 2024 IndyCar season, and there are three drivers who stand out as the top contenders for the championship. Behind them, there are drivers who have shown flashes of speed but lack consistency, while others have been consistent but lack the peak performance needed to challenge for the title. One driver who has excelled in consistency is Alex Palou, who had a streak of 24 races finishing eighth or better until he was taken out in Detroit by Josef Newgarden. However, Palou is not even our current favorite for the championship.
To determine the most likely title contenders, we have analyzed the data and identified the top three drivers in the standings – Alex Palou, Will Power, and Scott Dixon – as the favorites. While Dixon holds a 36-point lead over the chasing pack, it is not an insurmountable lead. However, the drivers in fourth and fifth place, Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood, face challenges that prevent them from being on par with the top three. Herta has shown high peaks but has also made multiple errors, while Kirkwood has been consistent but has yet to score a podium finish. In contrast, the top three drivers in the championship have all achieved at least three top-three finishes.
It may seem surprising to consider Dixon as the favorite among the top three, given that he is currently third in the championship standings. However, when we analyze the statistics, Dixon’s performance is in his favor. We have looked at data from the past three seasons, focusing on tracks that IndyCar has visited before and will visit this year. At tracks such as Mid-Ohio, Iowa, Toronto, Gateway, and Portland, Dixon has a better average finish than Palou and Power. Furthermore, when we calculate the average finishing position of each driver at these tracks for each season and take an average across the three seasons, Dixon comes out on top with an average finish of 5.56, followed by Palou with 6.56 and Power with 9.5.
Dixon’s advantage extends to tracks that have not been visited in the past three years, such as Milwaukee and the Nashville superspeedway. At Milwaukee, Dixon has an average finish of 6.17 over 12 races, while Power has an average finish of 9.57 in seven starts. Dixon has also had success at the Nashville venue, winning the last three races there and boasting an average finish of 3.17 from six starts. Additionally, Dixon has the best average finish at Toronto and Portland among the top three contenders since 2021.
However, Dixon does face some challenges. His qualifying performance has not been his strong suit, and unless he improves in this area, it is unlikely that he will emerge as the champion. On average, Dixon starts almost five positions behind Power each race, putting him at a significant disadvantage. He has also had two finishes outside the top 10 this year, which has impacted his standing in the championship.
Palou, the current points leader, is a formidable rival for Dixon. He has won two of the last three titles and is known for his consistency. While Palou is in the same team as Dixon, which can work both ways for them, it still presents a challenge for Dixon to come out on top. Power, on the other hand, races for a different team and has a different power unit, which gives him a slight advantage. However, Palou’s performance this year has been impressive, with the best average finish among the top three and the second-best average starting position.
For Palou to win the championship, he will need to continue his improvement and capitalize on the road and street courses, as well as close the gap on the ovals. While his average finish on ovals is not as strong as Dixon’s and Power’s, the difference is not significant. Palou has shown progress in his oval racing and has the potential to master them. However, he will need to avoid off-track controversies, engine penalties, and poor reliability to stay in contention.
In conclusion, the 2024 IndyCar season has reached its halfway point, and three drivers stand out as the leading contenders for the championship – Alex Palou, Will Power, and Scott Dixon. While Dixon may not be leading the championship at the moment, the statistics favor him as the favorite among the top three. However, Palou and Power are not far behind and have their strengths and opportunities to challenge for the title. The remaining races will be crucial in determining the outcome of the championship.
